An Interactive Essay
Signal & Noise
Seven chapters on the math hiding inside every decision you make. Drag the sliders. Watch the numbers move. See what you've been missing.
BeginSeven Chapters
The Test
Medical Diagnostics
A test is 95% accurate. It comes back positive. What are the chances you’re actually sick?
02The Signal
Radio Telescope Detection
You’re a SETI analyst. The feed is mostly noise. How do you decide what’s real?
03The Forecast
Election Modeling
Your candidate is up 52–48 in the polls. Should you celebrate? That depends on what you mean by ‘up.’
04The Update
Belief Revision
You start with a hunch. Evidence arrives. How much should your belief shift — and why does the math say less than you think?
05The Market
Financial Noise
A stock jumped 3% today. Is that a signal worth acting on, or just the market doing what markets do?
06The Evidence
Correlated Witnesses
Two eyewitnesses both place the suspect at the scene. That sounds damning — unless they talked to each other first.
07The Convergence
One Pattern, Seven Disguises
You’ve seen this equation six times in six disguises. Now watch them all move together.